Friday, February 20, 2009

Nat Turner's Annual Academy Awards predictions

Oscar time. Here're my picks: (1) who will win, (2) who should win:

Best Actor:

Richard Jenkins
THE VISITOR
Frank Langella
FROST/NIXON
Sean Penn
MILK
Brad Pitt
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Mickey Rourke
THE WRESTLER

Who will win: Sean Penn. Need you ask why? Who should win: Richard Jenkins (dead dad from Six Feet Under, The Visitor is GOOD!) ...or my man Mickey Rourke. The Wrestler's like an animated Springsteen song...

Best Supporting Actor:


Josh Brolin
MILK
Robert Downey Jr.
TROPIC THUNDER
Philip Seymour Hoffman
DOUBT
Heath Ledger
THE DARK KNIGHT
Michael Shannon
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD

Who will win: Heath Ledger, because the Academy is full of shit. The Joker is an iconic character, but damn. Who should win: Michael Shannon. The supporting winner should always be the best quick hit powerful performance. This is it, folks. His character--a manic depressive prof on screen for maybe ten minutes--steals the flick and is the only character with sense.

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway
RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
Angelina Jolie
CHANGELING
Melissa Leo
FROZEN RIVER
Meryl Streep
DOUBT
Kate Winslet
THE READER

Who will win: Meryl Streep. The role was amazing, but Cherry Jones did it better on Broadway and the Academy is ill. They just see the name and vote yes. Who should win: Melissa Leo or AnnE Hathaway. Too bad AnnE's only recognized by dumb red state chicks for them silly-ass romantic comedies. Why fuck was Angelina even considered?

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams
DOUBT
Penélope Cruz
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis
DOUBT
Taraji P. Henson
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
Marisa Tomei
THE WRESTLER

Who will win: Viola Davis. In the age of Obama, she's the dark face they'll annoint. Who should win: Viola Davis. In the age of Obama, because she's the best. No conspiracy theory "She and Taraji will cancel each other out." Unh unh. Sorry--Taraji just AIN'T that good, and Ebony/Jet readers don't vote in the Academy...

Best Animated:

BOLT
KUNG FU PANDA
WALL-E

Who will win: Wall-E. Who should win: Wall-E. Same notion as above!

Best Director:

THE READER
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON (David Fincher)
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (Danny Boyle)
FROST/NIXON (Ron Howard)
MILK (Gus Van Sant)

Who will win: Danny Boyle, as Slumdog is a magical everything to limo liberal Hollywood and Danny captured this. Who should win: Ron Howard. Masterful realism, for once.

Best Documentary:

THE BETRAYAL (NERAKHOON)
ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD
THE GARDEN
MAN ON WIRE
TROUBLE THE WATER

Who will win: Encounters at the End of the World. It's Green. Who should win: Trouble in the Water. Even in this era of change, the same limo liberals who love Slumdog don't want to hear anymore about Katrina. Especially the ugly man oppressing man stuff, not man vs. nature.

Foreign Film:

THE BADER MEINHOF COMPLEX
THE CLASS
DEPARTURES
REVANCHE
WALTZ WITH BASHIR

Who will win: Waltz with Bashir. Who should win: Waltz with Bashir. We never tire of Middle Eastern crap--including this one from Israel. Lord...

Musical Score:

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DEFIANCE
MILK
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
WALL-E

Who will win: Slumdog Millionaire. But Defiance is a Holocaust flick and you know they gotta toss that in there. Who should win: Benjamin Button. Stirring stuff.

Best song:

"Down to Earth"
WALL-E
"Jai Ho"
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
"O Saya"
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Jesus...this category always sucks. Any Slumdog song will win. It's Bollywood representin'. Bring back the 3-6 mafia...or "Shaft" from 1971...

Best Picture:

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
FROST/NIXON
MILK
THE READER
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Who will win: Slumdog. That's right, it's "magical" (unless you really are a Muslim in the slums of Mumbai). Gay Hollywood will get their bone through Sean Penn. Who should win: Frost/Nixon (it has it all--performances, composition, writing) or The Reader.

NOW FOR WRITING, WHICH IS THE HARDEST THING, YET NO ONE GIVES UP THE PROPS. WITHOUT WRITERS THERE IS NOTHING...

Best Writing (adapted screenplay):

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
DOUBT
FROST/NIXON
THE READER
SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

Who will win: Doubt's writers. Who should win: Lord you can't go wrong if the original play was amazing, so isn't it a tad counter-intuitive to "award" someone for tweaking perfection? I go with Frost/Nixon.

Best original screenplay:

FROZEN RIVER
HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
IN BRUGES
MILK
WALL-E

Who will win: Milk's writers. Again, need you ask why? It's Malcolm X for Gays. Who should win: Frozen River. Who should have been m-fing nominated: The Wrestler.

12 comments:

Lisa said...

I loved the Viola Davis assessment! You're right about Taraji, but she's a Howard sista so I have to hang by her!

Anonymous said...

I agree Slumdog will win, but not for the awful, cynical reasons you give. However, I will admit in the song category the competition is weak and there is a drive from Hollywood to recognize Bollywood.

Anonymous said...

Mickey Rourke. You cannot HELP but root for that ill muthafucka.

Your wife said...

I love Viola Davis!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Georgetown University Journalism said...

Co-sign on Viola Davis.

Ochyming said...

You are good.

WALL-E!!!
For best movie!

Pebbles Flintstone said...

Revolutionary Road isn't nominated for more Oscars? I thought it was the best film of the season, including Di Caprio's and Kate Winslet's roles.

rikyrah said...

I think they're gonna give it to Rourke.

I would love for Viola to win.

But, Winslet is gonna win Best Actress. 'They' love her, and she had what, two roles that she could be nominated for ---they eat that mess up.

Snowman said...

This is micro-trivia, but of you notice "In Bruges" is one of the few Oscar nominees for screenplay that is also nominated for an Edgar. That tidbit came from Walter but I think you can see it in the Mystery Writers of America newsletter. Are you going in April?

Anonymous said...

SoCal 82Tiger:

Professor: Some inspired correct calls (Wall-E) while other calls were just inspired... Nice to knpw we all have and idea who is and should win and the Academy still figures out a way to F up our brilliant analysis..

BTW On its own Wall-E would have been an inpired Best Pix nominee (too much to ask of the academy?).

The day an animated movie gets a Best Picture nod is the day a pure comedy wins for Best Picture. Hell even when a comic/cartoons are made into great feature movies (Dark Knight/Ironman) they like animated movies, will ALWAYS be marginalized and overlooked by the Academy for the "serious" (non-technical) awards...
Looking back Heath Ledger couldn't even guarantee his Oscar without dieing first!!!!

Anonymous said...

Mickey Rourke?!! Excuse me while I BARF! The guy is a creepy washed-up loser with a capital L and deservedly so but typical how the media overlooks HIS wife-beating thug past and lowlife a@@ to go on yet another high-tech lynching.